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Mobile commmunications:
cashing in on new services
Written by: Petr Vykoukal
EUROTEL REMAINS the leading mobile operator,
with its four million customers amounting to more than those of its parent
fixed-line operator, Český Telecom. T-Mobile is the second largest, with
3.6 million customers, while the youngest competitor, Oskar, has further
reinforced its position, with 1.3 million. The entire market thus grew
by almost 15% year-on-year.
 The main question now is: can the number of users continue to
rise? All of the operators acknowledge that growth cannot equal
that of the past, but they still see space for themselves. According
to Garrison Macri, Eurotel's executive marketing director, mobile
phone penetration in the 18-49 year-old segment is nearly 100%,
so teenagers and seniors are the focus of their interest. Igor
Přerovský, Oskar's brand and communications vice-president, sees
corporate clients as a promising segment as well. "New firms
are being established constantly, and entrepreneurs aren't afraid
of switching to other operators for better services or prices."
T-Mobile sees a different path to further growth. According to
Jiří Hájek, the company's spokesman, greater segmentation is the
way to go. Examples of the company following this policy include
the launch of the Student tariff (markedly lower monthly fees for
college students) and Twist Home (inexpensive calls to selected
countries). Hájek notes that based on these two products' results,
T-Mobile will keep looking for other segments with good prospects. "If
we considered machines as users as well, growth in the number of
active SIM cards is essentially unlimited," Hájek says. It's
already possible to find various GSM applications in beverage vending
machines, and T-Mobile mediates gas meter readings in industrial
companies, a service that could be used in large apartment buildings
as well.
Show me the data
There are certainly more sources of revenue growth to be explored. Besides
new clients, operators see opportunity in new services and the wider
use of existing ones. The key word here is data. "Data and high
value-added services should be the main growth factor for mobile operators," says
Jan Slabý, an analyst at Wood & Company. This opinion is echoed
by John Gole, program manager in the telecommunications division at
IDC CEMA, a market research firm in the field of technology. Gole expects
that at the end of this year the share of data services (primarily
SMS, as well as MMS, WAP, GPRS, etc.) of total revenues from end users
(excluding connection fees, etc.) will reach 18%, and probably 30%
by 2005. Another sign that the market is already heading in this direction
is the sharp rise of GPRS data transmission volume. After Eurotel launched
its Data Nonstop tariff, which offers unlimited data transfers for
a flat fee, the volume of transmitted data increased thirty-fold in
a few months.
Beyond the handset market, the growing number of laptop sales also bodes
well for an increased demand in mobile data. "Currently, around
30% of all computers sold are laptops, and this number is growing quarter
by quarter," says Vladimír Dvořák, director of the personal systems
division at Hewlett-Packard. "We see a significant movement in customer
preferences from desktop PCs to laptops," he adds. Vít Šubert, marketing
director of competing firm Dell, confirms this development: "The
main factor for this change is decreasing laptop prices, which are approaching
those of desktop models. For SMEs mobility is especially important; it's
more suitable to their style of doing business."
Others join the GSM network foray
Operators aren't basing their battle in the data transfer market only
on GSM networks - one of the technologies at the center of attention
is Wi-Fi. This wireless technology, which works in license-free zones,
allows line-of-sight data transfers at up to 11.2 Mb/s with a range
of hundreds of meters (thousands of meters when antennas are used).
However, even the mobile operators are seizing upon this opportunity,
and are beginning to offer Wi-Fi internet access. "In the future
we would like to offer our clients software that will check the available
connections and, according to the user's preferences, connects them
to a network. If Wi-Fi is available it will be the best choice, otherwise
GPRS will be used. In the future, UMTS (third-generation mobile networks)
will be also an option," says T-Mobile's Hájek.
Not surprisingly, the proliferation of Wi-Fi will also be supported by
new laptop models with the requisite software. Vladimír Dvořák estimates
that "next year 80% of laptops will be standardly equiped with Wi-Fi,
and by 2005 that should be close to 100%." Although the number of
locations with Wi-Fi coverage is currently small, accessible mainly in
commercial spaces and hotels, it is rising rapidly. The consulting firm
Gartner Dataquest offered a prediction that area coverage will double
by 2005.
The first Czech operator to offer Wi-Fi was Eurotel, which provided coverage
at the Congress Center and its environs during last year's NATO summit.
But Eurotel's competitors wasted no time cutting into its head start.
T-Mobile launched its HotSpot network soon after, and it is now accessible
free of charge while trial operations are underway. Eventually a paid
system in two versions will be offered: one for the operator's clients
(paid for as part of the monthly bill) and the second for other users.
Stagnating cell phones
While services seem to be undergoing steady expansion, local representatives
of vendors are not overly optimistic about product sales in the near
future. Roman Vaňko, marketing manager for Siemens mobile phones division
expects to see a period of stagnation, because new buyers on the market
are few, and current customers are only exchanging their old phones
for newer ones. Another marketing manager, who asked not to be named,
also believes that next year's sales levels will be about the same
as this year. Moreover, he is not optimistic about the market being
significantly boosted by new services (such as MMS) that demand specially-equipped
phones.
As no one wants to disclose precise numbers about the overall market,
it is difficult to estimate coming sales levels based on last year's
figures. The existence of a significant gray market also detracts from
the accuracy of any such estimates. "According to statements by
individual handset importers, mobile phone sales last year are very roughly
two million," estimates Jan Matura, editor of the specialized web
site Mobil.cz. "You have to add about one fifth to this number to
account for the gray market," he adds. Around the same numbers can
be derived from Siemens statements - they sold 755,000 handsets in the
last 12 months, just behind Nokia's figures. If their (unconfirmed) market
share is approximately 36%, that puts the entire Czech market at around
2.1 milion phones a year. Manufacturers would certainly like this situation
to improve, as would operators, who want to see the greatest possible
dissemination of handsets that can make use of such touted new services
as MMS. This year's Christmas sales will show if their hopes are too
high.
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How popular are the new
technologies?
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Garrison Macri Photo:
Petr Poliak
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NOVELTIES LIKE MMS are finding users among
the masses very slowly. Garrison Macri, Eurotel's executive
marketing director, claims that what we call modern technologies
should include expanded functionality of services that most
mobile phone users are already using, like voice services
and SMS messages. As far as voice services are concerned,
this can involve the supplementation of voice mail boxes
with the option of immediate connections with the caller,
etc. As opposed to MMS, these services have substantially
greater chances of finding users among the masses, as they
generally don't require new handsets.
MMS messages, which were first offered over a year ago, still
aren't used on a mass scale. Individual operators are able
to discover how many handsets that are capable of sending
or receiving MMS messages are operational in their networks.
That number is estimated at only about 10,000, and usually
only a fraction of their owners have MMS activated. For Eurotel
this means only 1.5% of its clientele. However, Macri expects
that this figure could rise to 10% over the next 18 months.
The situation with the other operators is similar. For example,
Oskar had about 25,000 users at the beginning of October,
which is not even 2% of its customers. Eurotel revealed that
an active user sends 33 MMS messages a month and receives
23. With one MMS message costing CZK 9.50, a customer like
that is of great interest. Jiří Hájek, T-Mobile's spokesman,
expects more widespread use of MMS messages in the near future: "This
Christmas will be a turning point. We will come up with an
interesting offer of affordable multimedia handsets," he
says.
The competition will certainly not remain far behind. The
insufficient dissemination of handsets supporting MMS places
the greatest limits on its wider use. Operators should take
this into account when they launch other modern technologies. "If
we want the new services to be used by many clients, they
must be as simple as possible," Hájek comments. One
of the steps towards this goal is cooperation of operators
with handset manufacturers. "[They] used to come to
us with already produced handsets and price offers. We now
tell them which services we want to provide, and it's up
to them to develop suitable handsets for these purposes," explains
Hájek.
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Corporate market offers
prime battlefield
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Jiří Hájek Photo:
Petr Poliak
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While recently a customer was still essentially a customer,
there is now a perceptible shift among all the operators,
with the greatest turmoil mainly in the corporate client
segment. As illustrated in the graph below, the share of
Oskar is rising, while the other two, Eurotel and T-Mobile,
are focusing primarily on keeping the corporate clients they
have. T-Mobile spokesman Jiří Hájek notes that it costs less
to keep existing customers than it does to acquire new ones.
Small firms justifiably deserve primary attention - because
they have only a small number of SIM cards it's much easier
for them to change service providers than it is for large
companies.
Above all, the two oldest (and for now the largest) operators
are beginning to change their offers to corporate clients,
trying to adapt them to better meet their needs. Until now
only Oskar has created tariffs solely for corporate clients,
while such clients must choose from the general offers of
the other two (although large clients have been able to arrange
customized offers). T-Mobile has just introduced its first
purely corporate tariff, whose main enticement is free calls
within so-called virtual company networks, or VPNs. These
VPNs represent a set of telephone numbers defined by corporate
clients - there are usually special rules for calls between
these numbers, such as lower prices, etc. Oskar launched
this service at almost the same time as T-Mobile did, but
the two operators set up their offers in slightly different
ways. With T-Mobile a separate tariff is involved, under
which all calls within the VPN are free, while Oskar offers
this option for a surcharge applied to its basic corporate
tariffs.
The great question is what a corporate client really is,
because each operator selects the research that makes it
look best when presenting its results. According to research
by Millward Brown, the research company T-Mobile uses, T-Mobile
shows the greatest growth in the segment with six or more
employees. Oskar, which consults research from the same company,
claims that it controls nearly one third of the segment covering
companies with 10-14 SIM cards, which puts it in second place,
ahead of T-Mobile. However, research into the entire market
shows a clear trend. T-Mobile is maintaining the same, or
a just slightly greater share of this steadily growing market,
which means more customers in absolute terms. Oskar is growing
very quickly in relative and absolute terms alike, mainly
to the detriment of Eurotel, whose relative share is declining.
Eurotel's number of corporate client SIM cards has remained
essentially unchanged over the last two years.

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Pre-paid profits
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Igor Přerovský Photo:
Vojtěch Vlk
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Each month prepaid customers spend over two billion crowns
on services provided by mobile operators. This is a good
chunk of money, not only for the operators, but also for
firms that provide recharging of prepaid cards. Credit can
be recharged from ATMs, Sazka terminals, from current accounts
by means of permanent or one-time payment orders, via GSM
or on-line banking, with payment cards, via SMS messages,
etc. These variants are simpler than the original coupons,
and they are also more efficient for the operators, as they
can result in considerable savings. According to Jiří Hájek,
T-Mobile's spokesman, the importance of alternative channels
is also borne out by the fact that they currently represent
60% of all recharges.
Although no official numbers are available, the most successful
alternative recharging channel is Sazka terminals, through
which, according to those in the know, hundreds of millions
of crowns flow to mobile operators each month. A spokeswoman
for Sazka refused to make public the exact number - referring
to Sazka's contracts with the operators - but she did state
that the results far exceed expectations connected with this
service. The second most popular recharging channel, ATMs,
is not far behind. Komerční banka's spokeswoman, Marie Petrovová,
says that each month the bank implements about 100,000 recharging
transactions worth CZK 45 million. Helena Matuszná, from
the press department of Česká spořitelna, states that in
the first eight months of this year CZK 157 million went
for recharges in 436,000 transactions at their ATMs (only
Eurotel can be recharged there). And finally, the ČSOB ATM
network accounts for about CZK 60 million a month in recharging
transactions, which is about 2% of the value of all transactions.
Recharging via GSM Banking isn't negligible, either. GE Capital
Bank handles 100,000 such transactions each month, at an
average of CZK 300 each, which comes to CZK 30 million.
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